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They pass turn four having dropped to 12 life from your Ball Lightning, and then you go Bolt, Fireblast, Fireblast, sacrifice this Mogg Fanatic, take 12 to the face and die
Frank's calculations assume the pre-london mulligan rule of going down 1 card each time you mulligan (no scry), not the Commander mulligan of one free mulligan at the start, so the % chance of hitting your lands is actually a little higher for us
That's not a problem though, since Yorion gives you plenty of power as your commander instead
Crystal Barricade Rarity: Rare TYPE: Artifact Creature SUBTYPE: Wall CMC: 2 Mana cost: USD: $2.54 EUR: 2.21 TIX: 0.02 EDHREC RANK: 2123 Defender (This creature can't attack.) You have hexproof
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